The 2024-25 Season

Since VCU is half-way through A10 play, I figured it would be a good time for a check-in!

All things considered, if you told me on 12/30/24 that VCU would be 7-2 at this point with our current results, I would be happy. Bona, Rhody, and Loyola looked very good at times in the non-con and going 3-1 vs those teams was a solid and acceptable result. We know Joes can be hit or miss so getting a road win at Hawk Hill when Joes played solid was a good win. SLU played well to start A10 play and def feel like a team that can finish top 4 so splitting with then makes sense. Fordham and Richmond stunk in the the non-con and stink now so beating them easily is good.

This is how I breakdown the final 9 games:
  • Looking like they will be stuck as Q4 games (3): vs La Salle, vs UMass, at Richmond.
  • Looking like they will be stuck as Q3 games (2): vs Davidson, at Duquesne
  • Hovering on Q2/Q3 (3): at GW (ranked 136 so currently Q3), vs Mason (ranked 70 so currently Q2), vs Dayton (ranked 73 so currently Q2).
  • Hovering on Q1/Q2 (1): at Dayton (ranked 73 so currently Q1).

From a pure standings POV, if VCU wants to win at least a share of the A10 title and be the 1 seed, then going 7-2 to finish 14-4 and beating Mason seems like an absolute minimum requirement because I don't see a 13-5 record doing the trick. Going 8-1 to finish 15-3 with a win over Mason seems like it would do it given that I have a hard time seeing Mason winning all of their non-VCU games.

I think VCUs at-large chances also require VCU being 14-4 (23-7 overall) or 15-3 (24-6 overall), but how George Mason and Dayton finish will be huge too. If Mason is a Top 75 team, perhaps close to 50 and VCU has a win over Mason, then that is a darn good Q2 win. If Mason goes say 5-4 down the stretch and falls into the 80s of the NET, then it is a Q3 game. Same for Dayton..... say the Flyers go 7-2 in their final 9 games and split with VCU then my guess is that Dayton is still Top 75 maybe around 60. Same for Bona and Joes..... both teams are ranked in the 80s so if either goes on a heater and gets into the Top 75, then VCU could have a road Q1 win (Joes) and a home Q2 win (Bona).

I'm really intrigued to see what happens with this team. Since that road Loyola game it feels like there has been a fire with the squad. The road SLU game was definitely not a well played game, but it wasn't like we weren't in it (we took the lead with like 7 minutes) to go. I'm not saying that we will be perfect in our remaining 9 games, but I hope we look back and see that the road SLU game (particularly the second half), was easily our worst A10 performance.

Thoughts?
 
We got to at least split with Dayton, bring Mason down a peg, and avoid dropping the banana peel games. Do that and were probably sitting near Top 30 in NET going into A10 tourney. Win a game and we're probably in.

Any combo of swept by Dayton, Mason wins league, or random loss to a Umass/GW and we are probably sweating and hoping to win the tourney.

Although I honestly think we are going to win the tourney this year. We came within a hair last year and the team was was worse offensively and defensively. Also Duquesne was surprisingly good. Not so much this year. I like our chances against any team in the league on a neutral court.
 
2/2/25

NET
= 42
BT = 38
KP = 37

Realistic at-large path........finish Top 4 seed (for A-10 Tourney) and reach 24 (D-1) wins by Selection Saturday night (with A-10 remaining Top 7 NET conf).

8 more D-1 wins (of any variety)..........10-12 games remaining (9 reg season + 1-3 A-10 tourney)

Scenario A
Current D-1 record = 16-5
Remaining 9 reg season games = 8-1
Final reg season D-1 record = 24-6 overall, 15-3 conf (likely #1 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 0-1 (lose Fri vs #8 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-7; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed


Scenario B
Current D-1 record = 16-5
Remaining 9 reg season games = 7-2
Final reg season D-1 record = 23-7 overall, 14-4 conf (likely #2 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 1-1 (win Fri vs #7 seed; lose Sat vs #3 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-8; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed


Scenario C
Current D-1 record = 16-5
Remaining 9 reg season games = 6-3
Final reg season D-1 record = 22-8 overall, 13-5 conf (likely #3 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 2-0 (win Fri vs #6 seed; win Sat vs #2 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-8; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed


Notes:
1)
Scheduling a D-2 was a mistake (one less D-1 win for a team typically, and currently, in bubble territory)
2) The A-10 (NET #7 conference) will likely still (somehow) end up being a 2-bid league
3) The committee generally completes the field late Sat night (w/ Sunday contingency plans)
4) Since 2009, VCU has never missed an NCAA tourney w/ 23+ wins (CAA/A-10 has never been higher than current #7 NET conf)
5) The necessary qualifying "at-large worthy" metrics (NET, KP, BT, RPI, BPI, SOS, SOR, Top 100 wins, road/neutral record, etc) will almost always result from (or support) a cumulative D-1 win total (24+) combined with a #7 (NET) conf rank/strength
 
Since VCU is half-way through A10 play, I figured it would be a good time for a check-in!

All things considered, if you told me on 12/30/24 that VCU would be 7-2 at this point with our current results, I would be happy. Bona, Rhody, and Loyola looked very good at times in the non-con and going 3-1 vs those teams was a solid and acceptable result. We know Joes can be hit or miss so getting a road win at Hawk Hill when Joes played solid was a good win. SLU played well to start A10 play and def feel like a team that can finish top 4 so splitting with then makes sense. Fordham and Richmond stunk in the the non-con and stink now so beating them easily is good.

This is how I breakdown the final 9 games:
  • Looking like they will be stuck as Q4 games (3): vs La Salle, vs UMass, at Richmond.
  • Looking like they will be stuck as Q3 games (2): vs Davidson, at Duquesne
  • Hovering on Q2/Q3 (3): at GW (ranked 136 so currently Q3), vs Mason (ranked 70 so currently Q2), vs Dayton (ranked 73 so currently Q2).
  • Hovering on Q1/Q2 (1): at Dayton (ranked 73 so currently Q1).

From a pure standings POV, if VCU wants to win at least a share of the A10 title and be the 1 seed, then going 7-2 to finish 14-4 and beating Mason seems like an absolute minimum requirement because I don't see a 13-5 record doing the trick. Going 8-1 to finish 15-3 with a win over Mason seems like it would do it given that I have a hard time seeing Mason winning all of their non-VCU games.

I think VCUs at-large chances also require VCU being 14-4 (23-7 overall) or 15-3 (24-6 overall), but how George Mason and Dayton finish will be huge too. If Mason is a Top 75 team, perhaps close to 50 and VCU has a win over Mason, then that is a darn good Q2 win. If Mason goes say 5-4 down the stretch and falls into the 80s of the NET, then it is a Q3 game. Same for Dayton..... say the Flyers go 7-2 in their final 9 games and split with VCU then my guess is that Dayton is still Top 75 maybe around 60. Same for Bona and Joes..... both teams are ranked in the 80s so if either goes on a heater and gets into the Top 75, then VCU could have a road Q1 win (Joes) and a home Q2 win (Bona).

I'm really intrigued to see what happens with this team. Since that road Loyola game it feels like there has been a fire with the squad. The road SLU game was definitely not a well played game, but it wasn't like we weren't in it (we took the lead with like 7 minutes) to go. I'm not saying that we will be perfect in our remaining 9 games, but I hope we look back and see that the road SLU game (particularly the second half), was easily our worst A10 performance.

Thoughts?
No more losses. Maybe in the A10 championship game and we have an at large chance.
 
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