theyaintwantit
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Since VCU is half-way through A10 play, I figured it would be a good time for a check-in!
All things considered, if you told me on 12/30/24 that VCU would be 7-2 at this point with our current results, I would be happy. Bona, Rhody, and Loyola looked very good at times in the non-con and going 3-1 vs those teams was a solid and acceptable result. We know Joes can be hit or miss so getting a road win at Hawk Hill when Joes played solid was a good win. SLU played well to start A10 play and def feel like a team that can finish top 4 so splitting with then makes sense. Fordham and Richmond stunk in the the non-con and stink now so beating them easily is good.
This is how I breakdown the final 9 games:
From a pure standings POV, if VCU wants to win at least a share of the A10 title and be the 1 seed, then going 7-2 to finish 14-4 and beating Mason seems like an absolute minimum requirement because I don't see a 13-5 record doing the trick. Going 8-1 to finish 15-3 with a win over Mason seems like it would do it given that I have a hard time seeing Mason winning all of their non-VCU games.
I think VCUs at-large chances also require VCU being 14-4 (23-7 overall) or 15-3 (24-6 overall), but how George Mason and Dayton finish will be huge too. If Mason is a Top 75 team, perhaps close to 50 and VCU has a win over Mason, then that is a darn good Q2 win. If Mason goes say 5-4 down the stretch and falls into the 80s of the NET, then it is a Q3 game. Same for Dayton..... say the Flyers go 7-2 in their final 9 games and split with VCU then my guess is that Dayton is still Top 75 maybe around 60. Same for Bona and Joes..... both teams are ranked in the 80s so if either goes on a heater and gets into the Top 75, then VCU could have a road Q1 win (Joes) and a home Q2 win (Bona).
I'm really intrigued to see what happens with this team. Since that road Loyola game it feels like there has been a fire with the squad. The road SLU game was definitely not a well played game, but it wasn't like we weren't in it (we took the lead with like 7 minutes) to go. I'm not saying that we will be perfect in our remaining 9 games, but I hope we look back and see that the road SLU game (particularly the second half), was easily our worst A10 performance.
Thoughts?
All things considered, if you told me on 12/30/24 that VCU would be 7-2 at this point with our current results, I would be happy. Bona, Rhody, and Loyola looked very good at times in the non-con and going 3-1 vs those teams was a solid and acceptable result. We know Joes can be hit or miss so getting a road win at Hawk Hill when Joes played solid was a good win. SLU played well to start A10 play and def feel like a team that can finish top 4 so splitting with then makes sense. Fordham and Richmond stunk in the the non-con and stink now so beating them easily is good.
This is how I breakdown the final 9 games:
- Looking like they will be stuck as Q4 games (3): vs La Salle, vs UMass, at Richmond.
- Looking like they will be stuck as Q3 games (2): vs Davidson, at Duquesne
- Hovering on Q2/Q3 (3): at GW (ranked 136 so currently Q3), vs Mason (ranked 70 so currently Q2), vs Dayton (ranked 73 so currently Q2).
- Hovering on Q1/Q2 (1): at Dayton (ranked 73 so currently Q1).
From a pure standings POV, if VCU wants to win at least a share of the A10 title and be the 1 seed, then going 7-2 to finish 14-4 and beating Mason seems like an absolute minimum requirement because I don't see a 13-5 record doing the trick. Going 8-1 to finish 15-3 with a win over Mason seems like it would do it given that I have a hard time seeing Mason winning all of their non-VCU games.
I think VCUs at-large chances also require VCU being 14-4 (23-7 overall) or 15-3 (24-6 overall), but how George Mason and Dayton finish will be huge too. If Mason is a Top 75 team, perhaps close to 50 and VCU has a win over Mason, then that is a darn good Q2 win. If Mason goes say 5-4 down the stretch and falls into the 80s of the NET, then it is a Q3 game. Same for Dayton..... say the Flyers go 7-2 in their final 9 games and split with VCU then my guess is that Dayton is still Top 75 maybe around 60. Same for Bona and Joes..... both teams are ranked in the 80s so if either goes on a heater and gets into the Top 75, then VCU could have a road Q1 win (Joes) and a home Q2 win (Bona).
I'm really intrigued to see what happens with this team. Since that road Loyola game it feels like there has been a fire with the squad. The road SLU game was definitely not a well played game, but it wasn't like we weren't in it (we took the lead with like 7 minutes) to go. I'm not saying that we will be perfect in our remaining 9 games, but I hope we look back and see that the road SLU game (particularly the second half), was easily our worst A10 performance.
Thoughts?