The 2024-25 Season

2/6/25

VCU record this season:

When opponents score < 71 pts = 18-2
When opponents score > 70 pts = 0-3 (@NMex, @StBonny, @STL)

VCU record this season:
Games decided by 4 pts or more = 18-2
Games decided by less than 4 pts = 0-3 (@StBonny, Seton Hall, Nevada)
 
2/6/25

VCU record this season:

When opponents score < 71 pts = 18-2
When opponents score > 70 pts = 0-3 (@NMex, @StBonny, @STL)

VCU record this season:
Games decided by 4 pts or more = 18-2
Games decided by less than 4 pts = 0-3 (@StBonny, Seton Hall, Nevada)
So we should try to get them to score less points?
 
I got a mailer from the Department of Alumni relations regarding the A-10 tournament Pregame reception and other events. It was a really good event last time the A-10 was in DC. Registration sold out last time as well.

 
I've mentioned on here a few times that the second half (particularly the final 9 minutes or so) at Loyola Chicago felt like the "turning point" in VCUs season where our guys finally showed us what they can do against halfway good competition. Prior to that Loyola game, our resume was so mehh (blowout wins vs bad teams, blown games in Charleston, nothing special, etc).

I believe we will look back at this win at Dayton and view it as the "we're winning this league" type of win. VCU badly needed this one (for the resume and to win the A10) and we got it! Looking forward to road game at GW, a break, and then the final 1/3 of the A10 season!
 


48. Zeb Jackson (VCU) - 10.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg
19. Phillip Russell (VCU) - 11.7 ppg, 1.3 spg
9. Joe Bamisile (VCU) - 16.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.3 spg


An analytics darling (Kenpom has him second in POY ratings), Bamisile is the leading scorer for the A-10's best offense while having his most efficient season, thanks to 60.3% shooting from two. He's also the most engaged he's looked defensively since his year at George Washington, and is top twenty-five in the conference in both block and steal rate.
1. Max Shulga (VCU) - 15.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg

Shulga's excellence is not flashy; it's actually quite far from it. But he checks every single box you could dream up for a star guard. Top ten in assists? Check. Elite at-rim finishing? Check. Above average three point shooting? Check. Top two rebounding guard? Check. Plus, his unselfishness allows Bamisile, Jackson, and Russell to thrive alongside him. Shulga's lack of scoring may keep him from winning Player of the Year, but that would be an absolute travesty.
 
2/9/25

5 weeks until Selection Sunday (16 Mar)......

NET
= 36
BT = 37
KP = 33

Realistic at-large path........finish Top 4 seed (for A-10 Tourney) and reach 24 (D-1) wins by Selection Saturday night (with A-10 remaining Top 7 NET conf).

6 more D-1 wins (of any variety)..........8-10 games remaining (7 reg season + 1-3 A-10 tourney)

Scenario A
Current D-1 record = 18-5
Remaining 7 reg season games = 6-1
Final reg season D-1 record = 24-6 overall, 15-3 conf (likely #1 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 0-1 (lose Fri vs #8 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-7; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed


Scenario B
Current D-1 record = 18-5
Remaining 7 reg season games = 5-2
Final reg season D-1 record = 23-7 overall, 14-4 conf (likely #2 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 1-1 (win Fri vs #7 seed; lose Sat vs #3 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-8; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed


Scenario C
Current D-1 record = 18-5
Remaining 7 reg season games = 4-3
Final reg season D-1 record = 22-8 overall, 13-5 conf (likely #3 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 2-0 (win Fri vs #6 seed; win Sat vs #2 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-8; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed


Notes:
1)
Scheduling a D-2 was a mistake (one less D-1 win for a team typically, and currently, in bubble territory)
2) The A-10 (NET #7 conference) can still (somehow) end up being a 2-bid league
3) Top 8 NET/RPI conferences almost always end up being multi-bid leagues
4) The committee generally completes the field late Sat night (w/ Sunday contingency plans)
5) Since 2009, VCU has never missed an NCAA tourney w/ 23+ wins (CAA/A-10 has never been higher than current #7 NET conf)
6) The necessary qualifying "at-large worthy" metrics (NET, KP, BT, RPI, BPI, SOS, SOR, Top 100 wins, road/neutral record, etc) will almost always result from (or support) a cumulative D-1 win total (24+) combined with a #7 (NET) conf rank/strength
7) Teams with 24+ wins on Selection Saturday night, a Top 40 NET, and from a Top 8 NET conf are almost always selected
 
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