2/9/25
5 weeks until Selection Sunday (16 Mar)......
NET = 36
BT = 37
KP = 33
Realistic at-large path........finish Top 4 seed (for A-10 Tourney) and reach 24 (D-1) wins by Selection Saturday night (with A-10 remaining Top 7 NET conf).
6 more D-1 wins (of any variety)..........8-10 games remaining (7 reg season + 1-3 A-10 tourney)
Scenario A
Current D-1 record = 18-5
Remaining 7 reg season games = 6-1
Final reg season D-1 record = 24-6 overall, 15-3 conf (likely #1 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 0-1 (lose Fri vs #8 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-7; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed
Scenario B
Current D-1 record = 18-5
Remaining 7 reg season games = 5-2
Final reg season D-1 record = 23-7 overall, 14-4 conf (likely #2 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 1-1 (win Fri vs #7 seed; lose Sat vs #3 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-8; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed
Scenario C
Current D-1 record = 18-5
Remaining 7 reg season games = 4-3
Final reg season D-1 record = 22-8 overall, 13-5 conf (likely #3 seed)
A-10 Tourney = 2-0 (win Fri vs #6 seed; win Sat vs #2 seed on a neutral floor)
Selection Sat night = 24-8; NET range = 30-40; NCAA 10-11 seed
Notes:
1) Scheduling a D-2 was a mistake (one less D-1 win for a team typically, and currently, in bubble territory)
2) The A-10 (NET #7 conference) can still (somehow) end up being a 2-bid league
3) Top 8 NET/RPI conferences almost always end up being multi-bid leagues
4) The committee generally completes the field late Sat night (w/ Sunday contingency plans)
5) Since 2009, VCU has never missed an NCAA tourney w/ 23+ wins (CAA/A-10 has never been higher than current #7 NET conf)
6) The necessary qualifying "at-large worthy" metrics (NET, KP, BT, RPI, BPI, SOS, SOR, Top 100 wins, road/neutral record, etc) will almost always result from (or support) a cumulative D-1 win total (24+) combined with a #7 (NET) conf rank/strength
7) Teams with 24+ wins on Selection Saturday night, a Top 40 NET, and from a Top 8 NET conf are almost always selected