The Bubble, the Eye Test and the RPI...

Joined
Apr 20, 2009
Posts
2,018
Likes
1,810
Ok - i will do my best to summarize this quickly. We are on the bubble...Trust me. the committee watches the bracketbuster results closely. Wichita St. is considered to be "in" right now. We beat the Shockers on their court so we passed the "eye test".

the eye test is what hubert davis, jay bilas and the selection committee talk about all the time as their main criteria for choosing at large worthy teams. Can you show that you belong ? Can you play on a national stage and hold your own (madison square garden) or even come up with a big road win (at WSU).

While we had two home losses that really hurt last week we are still in the hunt. The CAA is getting a LOT of respect this season. Most predictions have the MVC getting 2 bids max. There will be many one bid leagues. The SEC west may get one at large team (bama). the bubble is weak this year. Teams that are usually a lock like memphis, gonzaga, butler and michigan state are struggling and are by no means the lock that they usually are. Plus there are 4 additional bids this year. at least one or more of those will go to a mid major...bank on it.

the committee chair said last year the RPI is only used to evaluate teams head to head in terms of seeding. If 2 teams are being compared for seeding they will look at the rpi as a tool to evaluate the two teams to see who should get the higher seed. thats all they use it for. The "eye test" is way more important than the rpi when it comes to at large bids

The RPI is NOT used to select teams. There are many teams ahead of us in the RPI that have no shot at an at large bid right now such as Harvard, Missouri St, cleveland st. Valpo, belmont and princeton.

We have a chance for 2 more top 100 wins this week which will help our case tremendously. Plus a win at drexel would be our ninth road win. Last year the commitee said road wins were very important in determining at large bids along with wins over top 50 teams (2) and top 100 (4).

IN my opinion we need to win these next 2 and then win 2 in the tourney including another win over ODU. That would give us 6 top 100 wins and 3 top 50 wins. We get that and we are in. Of course we will probably win the tourney anyway and all this wont matter but dont sweat the rpi. Its not a big deal. Dont put much stock in it...the committee chair is on record saying its not what they look at. We passed the eye test friday night...Let keep this ship rolling !! Go Rams !!
 
My eye test tells me we can be NCAA champs without being CAA champs? Could happen.
 
And then there are bubble teams. Let's not be one OK?

-----------------
GO RAMS!
Beat Dragons!!
 
Would love to see that wave but I just don't see it and neither does Lundardi. On CB Final he thinks the CAA will be a 2-bid league in Mason and ODU. He doesn't think were gonna win the CAA tournament so let's prove him wrong and get 3 for the CAA. That would be the only way it happens though.
 
It doesnt matter how many go from the Association because only one will succeed. 3 would be nice. I have been looking lately at this perfect storm scenario.
 
wavevcu said:
Ok - i will do my best to summarize this quickly. We are on the bubble...Trust me. the committee watches the bracketbuster results closely. Wichita St. is considered to be "in" right now. We beat the Shockers on their court so we passed the "eye test".
In NO WAY was Wichita St. even considered in before the game. Now they are in the same situation right now. Being listed as NEXT 4 OUT right behind us. It was a great win but your argument is about as strong as Bucknell's baseball team against JMU on Friday.
 
CAA Tournament Championship or NIT.

It's that simple. We have way too many teams in front of us on the bubble to realistically expect an at-large.
 
One thing we need to remember, Lunardi is the most publicized "bracketologist" but he is far from the most accurate, unless you count his final prediction which is usually two minutes before the announcement when he probably gets wind of the actual selections.

I disagree with DB, I think we have a shot...its a very long shot but I see a scenario where we could maybe be in the mix. I don't think the ODU/GMU losses really hurt us as much as it could've helped us big time. Losing to Drexel or JMU completely shuts the door.
 
No way we have a chance unless we win the tournament or maybe beat GMU in semis when they are ranked and lose to ODU in the finals.

If Richmond/UAB are in the first four teams out category and they both beat us, no way we are on the bubble.
 
Ramz22 said:
No way we have a chance unless we win the tournament or maybe beat GMU in semis when they are ranked and lose to ODU in the finals.

If Richmond/UAB are in the first four teams out category and they both beat us, no way we are on the bubble.

The only way we play GMU in the semis is if we drop to the 4 seed. They're likely to lock up the #1 seed when they play NU.


Otherwise, as the 3 seed (where we stand currently), our path will look like this (currently):

Saturday: Drexel or William and Mary
Sunday: Winner of ODU vs UNCW/NU
Monday: Most likely the winner of GMU/Hofstra (barring upsets)
 
Everyone has opinions. I try to use facts with my opinions to back them up. When i interviewed Tom O'Connor who is GMU's athletic director and was the chairman of the NCAA Selection Committee a couple of years ago we talked about the criteria that the committee uses to determine at large bids. He was very open and honest about the process and what they look for in determning bids. Many teams that get chances over and over and over again for a quality win stay on the bubble only because they are playing good teams and it helps their strength of schedule and gives them lots of games vs. top 100 teams. Ocassionally they win one of those games so they get the so called "marquee" win.

The eye test and the conference profile mean a lot. I think the CAA is ranked higher this season than any other season i can remember. If we can win out and finish 2nd in the league and make the finals and beat ODU in the process we will have a very strong case come selection sunday. The bracketbuster game actually helped us for once and could not have come at a better time !

So what's the over/under on how many technicals bruiser will get wed night ?? :)
 
xjohnx said:
Ramz22 said:
No way we have a chance unless we win the tournament or maybe beat GMU in semis when they are ranked and lose to ODU in the finals.

If Richmond/UAB are in the first four teams out category and they both beat us, no way we are on the bubble.

The only way we play GMU in the semis is if we drop to the 4 seed. They're likely to lock up the #1 seed when they play NU.


Otherwise, as the 3 seed (where we stand currently), our path will look like this (currently):

Saturday: Drexel or William and Mary
Sunday: Winner of ODU vs UNCW/NU
Monday: Most likely the winner of GMU/Hofstra (barring upsets)

Yeah i was just saying if we get the 4 seed. Hopefully we handle business these last 2 games and at worse get the 3 seed. I can see Hofstra losing one of their last 2 after how they have been playing lately.
 
i mean realistically it looks like there will be 3 caa teams in the final four this year. crazy! :roll: :lol:
 
The "eye test" is just an excuse to put teams in that otherwise would not be able to get in based on their body of work. The "eye test" is what has Alabama on the bubble despite four atrocious losses (St. Peter's is a worse loss according to Sagarin than any of ours).
 
Back
Top