The Official Beat the Dayton Fayers in the Stu Thread

Art or scam?
Scam and he’s definitely made a career out of it but like theyaintwantit I get sucked in. Can’t help myself even though I know Lunardi is terrible at it. Can’t lie I was being pulled into what he was saying last night in that we aren’t completely out of at large talk (even though we seemingly most definitely are).
 
Can someone post a clip of this encounter? TV Teddy is pretty hated by most ACC fans. I would love to pass the video along to some people that will run with it.
I just happened to be at the game directly across from the interaction. Knowing I am going to rewatch the game later, I tend to focus more on things I don’t expect to see on TV. I say that to say that when I rewatched it earlier today, the broadcast stops at half court about three steps before TC Teddy is nose to nose with RO….who for the record didn’t flinch of give up one mm of ground
 
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I just happened to be at the game directly across from the interaction. Knowing I am going to rewatch the game later, I tend to focus more on things I don’t expect to see on TV. I say that to say that when I rewatched it earlier today, the broadcast stops at half court about three steps before TC Teddy is nose to nose with RO….who for the record didn’t flinch of give up one mm of ground
The plan is working.
 
Scam and he’s definitely made a career out of it but like theyaintwantit I get sucked in. Can’t help myself even though I know Lunardi is terrible at it. Can’t lie I was being pulled into what he was saying last night in that we aren’t completely out of at large talk (even though we seemingly most definitely are).
Well, think about it, what else is he going to say on a VCU game that's broadcast on the network he works for? Otherwise he's basically saying this game you all are watching ain't as big as ESPN is pumping it up to be.
 
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Scam and he’s definitely made a career out of it but like theyaintwantit I get sucked in. Can’t help myself even though I know Lunardi is terrible at it. Can’t lie I was being pulled into what he was saying last night in that we aren’t completely out of at large talk (even though we seemingly most definitely are).

Exactly. If he told the truth and said we had no shot then he doesn’t have enough to talk about to fill his time.

When you’re in the A10, what you do in OOC is everything. Even if you drop a few at home to the likes of Norfolk State, you can’t then lose to programs like GW at home in conference play on top of it without big wins like to Iowa State to balance it out. We didn’t do enough before the last 7 of 8, even if we win out, because we’re just beating each other up in conference. There’s no way to elevate now. There’s lots of other teams with similar resumes than ours with one more big win or one less bad loss who are playing in conferences with more opportunity.

Win in Brooklyn. We can do it if all the right pieces fall into place, like keeping this improvement on defense steady and hoping big players from our opponents keep missing their free throws.

I like how we’ve not given up game to game, but the at large is gone. It’s still fun to watch them dominate the top of the league.
 
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Art or scam?
It was an art at one point, but it’s gotten so ridiculous now. Dude changes his S-Curve EVERY day the final 6 weeks of the season. Zero reason you should do that, but I guess he gets clicks and plenty of traffic on Twitter and ESPN.
 
It was an art at one point, but it’s gotten so ridiculous now. Dude changes his S-Curve EVERY day the final 6 weeks of the season. Zero reason you should do that, but I guess he gets clicks and plenty of traffic on Twitter and ESPN.
I know I've referenced this a million times and I sound like a broken record, but in the early years of Lunardi, ESPN used to promote his "97% accuracy rate" as if that was impressive. Half the field is already selected for you via the conference tournaments. Then you throw in the at-large locks. It basically comes down to selecting the last four teams in. The most casual fan could accurately pick 64 out of 68 teams at that time which puts you at 94% from the jump. If you miss two out of the last four in (which is really the teams we all have questions about), you can still brag about 97%. When in reality, you only went 50% of the selections where the "art" comes in. You could make those selections by rolling dice and get the same results.

Just my pet peeve. It's a scam.
 
Exactly. If he told the truth and said we had no shot then he doesn’t have enough to talk about to fill his time.

When you’re in the A10, what you do in OOC is everything. Even if you drop a few at home to the likes of Norfolk State, you can’t then lose to programs like GW at home in conference play on top of it without big wins like to Iowa State to balance it out. We didn’t do enough before the last 7 of 8, even if we win out, because we’re just beating each other up in conference. There’s no way to elevate now. There’s lots of other teams with similar resumes than ours with one more big win or one less bad loss who are playing in conferences with more opportunity.

Win in Brooklyn. We can do it if all the right pieces fall into place, like keeping this improvement on defense steady and hoping big players from our opponents keep missing their free throws.

I like how we’ve not given up game to game, but the at large is gone. It’s still fun to watch them dominate the top of the league.

2/11/24

Current Metrics:
Record =
16-8 (8-3)
NET = 75
SOS = 59
BT = 82
KP = 81
Q1/Q2 wins = 6

At-Large Path:
22-9 (14-4) Top 2-3 reg season finish
2-0 A-10 Tourney (advancing to Sunday final)
———————
24-9 (Selection Saturday night)

Result: In the bracket Selection Sat night (at-large; #10 or 11 seed)
NET = ~40-50
SOS = ~40-50
KP = ~50-60
BT = ~50-60
Q1/Q2 wins = 9-11 (depending)

Summary: If the above happens (which would require an 8-1 finish (see below) between now and Selection Sat night, VCU would be in the bracket, regardless of the Sunday A-10 final outcome).

No team with all of the following credentials has ever been excluded from dancing:
1) Top 8 NET/RPI conference
2) Top 3 reg season finish
3) Top 2 conf tournament finish
4) Top 75 SOS
5) Top 65 NET/RPI
6) 24+ D-1 wins

Sample Scenario (thru Selection Sat night):
#236 @St Louis - win
#89 @Mass - win
#91 St Joes - win
#182 Rhody - win
#74 @Richmond - win
#106 Duquesne - win
#18 @Dayton - lose
#6/7 seed A-10 Tourney (opponent likely Top 100 NET) - win
#2/3 seed A-10 Tourney (opponent likely Dayton/UR) - win


Note: Highly unlikely to occur but nevertheless possible
 
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