The Official Beat the Dayton Fayers in the Stu Thread

2/11/24

Current Metrics:
Record =
16-8 (8-3)
NET = 75
SOS = 59
BT = 82
KP = 81
Q1/Q2 wins = 6

At-Large Path:
22-9 (14-4) Top 2-3 reg season finish
2-0 A-10 Tourney (advancing to Sunday final)
———————
24-9 (Selection Saturday night)

Result: In the bracket Selection Sat night (at-large; #10 or 11 seed)
NET = ~40-50
SOS = ~40-50
KP = ~50-60
BT = ~50-60
Q1/Q2 wins = 9-11 (depending)

Summary: If the above happens (which would require an 8-1 finish (see below) between now and Selection Sat night, VCU would be in the bracket, regardless of the Sunday A-10 final outcome).

No team with all of the following credentials has ever been excluded from dancing:
1) Top 8 NET/RPI conference
2) Top 3 reg season finish
3) Top 2 conf tournament finish
4) Top 75 SOS
5) Top 65 NET/RPI
6) 24+ D-1 wins

Sample Scenario (thru Selection Sat night):
#236 @St Louis - win
#89 @Mass - win
#91 St Joes - win
#182 Rhody - win
#74 @Richmond - win
#106 Duquesne - win
#18 @Dayton - lose
#6/7 seed A-10 Tourney (opponent likely Top 100 NET) - win
#2/3 seed A-10 Tourney (opponent likely Dayton/UR) - win


Note: Highly unlikely to occur but nevertheless possible

So you’re saying an at-large hinges on winning everything but Dayton and the A10 tourney game. Maybe when/if we lose one more game then you’ll stop thinking it’s possible.

I guess my issue is that just hitting the 24 win mark doesn’t matter. There’s no magical record that guarantees an at-large. It matters who you win and lose to. Dayton, Richmond, and Samford are our best wins this year. It’s not enough to cancel out two awful losses at home.
 
So you’re saying an at-large hinges on winning everything but Dayton and the A10 tourney game. Maybe when/if we lose one more game then you’ll stop thinking it’s possible.

I guess my issue is that just hitting the 24 win mark doesn’t matter. There’s no magical record that guarantees an at-large. It matters who you win and lose to. Dayton, Richmond, and Samford are our best wins this year. It’s not enough to cancel out two awful losses at home.
Plus every season is different and unique with different dynamics. Every season the bubble is different and the resumes you're competing against for those last at-large spots are different. Every season there are different people on the selection committee. There is not consistent "formula" to the dance. And lets be honest, we're only talking about the last few spots into the tournament.
 
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I appreciate the different perspectives here, but personally am looking at these next four games. If we win these next four then we can realistically start thinking about possibilities. Right now imo we are not even in the NIT discussion. Either way to date what Odom has done as a first year coach with substantial turnover has been remarkable.
 
So you’re saying an at-large hinges on winning everything but Dayton and the A10 tourney game. Maybe when/if we lose one more game then you’ll stop thinking it’s possible.

I guess my issue is that just hitting the 24 win mark doesn’t matter. There’s no magical record that guarantees an at-large. It matters who you win and lose to. Dayton, Richmond, and Samford are our best wins this year. It’s not enough to cancel out two awful losses at home.
I agree. The A10 at best will get 2 bids. And if Dayton doesn't win the A10, it will be Dayton and the tournament winner. VCU winning out in the way @GuardTheArc outlines, only gets us in the discussion.
 
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It was an art at one point, but it’s gotten so ridiculous now. Dude changes his S-Curve EVERY day the final 6 weeks of the season. Zero reason you should do that, but I guess he gets clicks and plenty of traffic on Twitter and ESPN.
That's his job!
 
Just before tip-off, as you look around the court and notice the officials, the presence of which referee worries you more...Jamie Luckie or Ted Valentine? Why?
 
Just before tip-off, as you look around the court and notice the officials, the presence of which referee worries you more...Jamie Luckie or Ted Valentine? Why?
TV Teddy actually isn’t that bad. He has a flair for the dramatic after blowing the whistle, but calls a decent game overall.

Jamie Luckie is an absolutely terrible official. He can’t even get up and down the court anymore. Dude needs to hang it up already.
 
TV Teddy, for all his histrionics, is actually considered a good official. You're not going to do much better than the crew we had Friday.
Roger Ayers is a pretty good one as well. I recognized the third guy but don’t know his name. Probably a good sign when you don’t know their names…
 
Roger Ayers is a pretty good one as well. I recognized the third guy but don’t know his name. Probably a good sign when you don’t know their names…
Ron Groover.

Roger Ayers has actually done six of our games this year, which is the most I can recall.

If you put much stock in KenPom's ref rankings, that crew was rated fifth, eighth and 35th in the country this year. 20 career Final Fours between them.
 
I agree. The A10 at best will get 2 bids. And if Dayton doesn't win the A10, it will be Dayton and the tournament winner. VCU winning out in the way @GuardTheArc outlines, only gets us in the discussion.
I'm having to go with Guard the Arc here. If we win out, we will be 3-3 vs. Q1 (if the Spiders remain a Q1 on the road), we will be 23-8, our NET will sure rise considerably, at least 50's, our missing players early on will maybe carry some weight (especially with close losses to some good teams then), our closing winning streak will also carry some weight.
I think we have a good case, especially if we make it to the finals in the A10.
25-9 15-3 in an improved A10, with a 12 game win streak up to a loss in the final, two early bad losses missing key players, 3 Q1 wins later with our full roster. Let's see who else is on the bubble by then. They will need a really good resume to keep us out.
But if we don't win out each loss makes an already not sure thing, a longer and longer shot. We may have a shot with a close loss at Dayton.
 
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