Where we stand in Conference

fmrick

fmrick

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Brought this from another thread and put it here to start a thread more on topic.

Rambunctious said:
Top 4 in the CAA is the goal now...we aren't likely to win the regular season with ODU, GMU, W&M, and NU all sitting there with only 1 loss after 7 conference games. We'd have to go on a big undefeated run and they'd all have to falter badly. So, as long as we could get into the top 4 and get Larry back for the tourney we'd have our shot.
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If you look at the composite schedule for the CAA you will see that most anything is still possible. The top teams (including us) all have a lot of games against each other later in the season. It starts this week, with us and W&M, but come this weekend, it really starts to get mixed. There are games that I consider "at-risk" because the top 6 teams play each other:

I consider the top six as still having a relatively good chance of getting a bye on Friday of the CAA tournament. The 7th place team right now is 2-5 and I think that just about puts them out of the conversation. So right now the teams that have a shot are: W&M, ODU, GMU, and NU at 6-1. Then you have VCU and DU at 4-3. But as I said above, there are a lot of games between those top 6 teams yet to be played. Here is what I come up with (team, number of games, Home/Away, who):

DU- 4 [Home- 1, Away- 3]: @NU, @W&M, GMU, @VCU
NU- 5 [Home- 3, Away- 2]: VCU, DU, ODU, @W&M, @GMU
GMU- 5 [Home- 2, Away- 3]: @DU, VCU, @ODU, W&M, NU (These 5 games are the 5 of the last 6 in a row)
VCU- 6 [Home- 3, Away- 3]: W&M, @NU, ODU, @GMU, DU, @ODU
ODU- 6 [Home- 3, Away- 3): @W&M, @NU, W&M, @VCU, GMU, VCU
W&M- 6 [Home- 3, Away- 3]: @VCU, ODU, DU, @ODU, NU, @GMU

While it appears at first glance that DU has some advantage, the three away games are tough.

Looks to me like NU has the best chance to win the most. If they just keep home safe and lose the away, they could end up with only 3 losses.

GMU is also in pretty good shape. Home and away helps. Lose just the away games and they end up with only 3 losses.

For VCU, we need to take care of home and pull an upset on the road. That would put us in pretty good shape. But we would still need some help.

ODU is in good shape, if they take care of home.

W&M is in good shape as well, again if they take care of the home games.

Then there are the lower teams pulling upsets. And we all know that there will be some shockers in there. This just points out why you can't let up.

What am I doing? I pulling for W&M and NU to win out, but for when each plays us. We need someone to get hot, and after W&M plays us, it would be fine if they did not lose another game. That might get them into the NCAA at-large talk.

At this point I think VCU can beat anyone in this conference anywhere we play, if we come to play. For us that would be best. But being realistic I'd like to see lose only one or two more, pulling some upsets, and taking care of the lessor teams and our home court.

Tie-breakers could be tough to figure this year. If the top teams start killing each other it will be a mess. We are sitting on the outside right now, so we need to be better then everyone else. BUT, we are still in control of our own destiny. Win out and we will not play on Friday. Lose one or two and I think we are still OK. Three losses might make it hard, and four or more will kill us unless someone else just starts losing big time.

Just beat W&M.
 
i agree with you. for right now we just have to take care of business. we will mostlikely split with ODU, but we still have @ Northeastern and @ Mason. if we can pull an upset like that on the road, then that would be huge. the rest will play itself out
 
major ram said:
so will 12-6 do it ? 13-5?
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For a top 4-seed, I think so. I doubt that would get us the regular season championship though. Playing at NU (they'll likely be on a 10-game winning streak seeing as they play Towson on Wednesday), at George Mason (which is always tough), and at ODU (which is even tougher) is a tough assignment. Losing 3 of our first 4 really tightens things up for us and there is little margin for error. We were 16-2, 15-3, and 15-3 the last 3 years we won the conference. We've already matched the highest loss total out of those 3 years in the first 4 games of the CAA regular season. It would take a miraculous stretch of games from us in order for us to win the regular season. I do think we have a great shot at a top 4 seed though.
 
I think there is an outside chance that 12-6 will do it. There are a couple teams in those top 6 that are suspect. I think GMU could be in first with 6 to go and end up playing on Friday. And I have always said that W&M and NU will fade late. I'm sticking with that until proven wrong.
 
districtballer said:
major ram said:
so will 12-6 do it ? 13-5?
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For a top 4-seed, I think so. I doubt that would get us the regular season championship though. Playing at NU (they'll likely be on a 10-game winning streak seeing as they play Towson on Wednesday), at George Mason (which is always tough), and at ODU (which is even tougher) is a tough assignment. Losing 3 of our first 4 really tightens things up for us and there is little margin for error. We were 16-2, 15-3, and 15-3 the last 3 years we won the conference. We've already matched the highest loss total out of those 3 years in the first 4 games of the CAA regular season. It would take a miraculous stretch of games from us in order for us to win the regular season. I do think we have a great shot at a top 4 seed though.
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we went 14-4 last year in the CAA - losses @ ODU, @ Delaware, @ UNC-Wilminton, vs Northeastern


fmrick said:
I think there is an outside chance that 12-6 will do it. There are a couple teams in those top 6 that are suspect. I think GMU could be in first with 6 to go and end up playing on Friday. And I have always said that W&M and NU will fade late. I'm sticking with that until proven wrong.
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i see George Mason playing on Friday, n Northeastern always fades late in the season
 
Yeah, looks like NU has the easiest route. We'll have to give them a home loss.
 
Below is what I posted on the general boards yesterday. I do not see Northeastern folding like they did last year. I'm sure last year's collapse is fresh in their minds.

Right now, my money is on Northeastern to win the regular season CAA and VCU to come in a three way third place tie. Listed below are my projected losses:

Northeastern - 3 losses (#1 seed)
ODU - 4 losses (#2 seed)
VCU - 5 losses (VCU will beat W&M this week and beat GMU. VCU will then own the tie breaker over both teams for the 3rd seed in the CAA tournament.)
GMU - 5 losses (GMU will beat W&M and own the tie breaker for the 4th seed in the CAA Tournament.)
W&M - 5 losses

If this comes to fruition, VCU would be in the same bracket as ODU and out of playing either GMU or W&M on Saturday. With our deep bench, this might be the best scenario for VCU in the tournament, particularly if we have an easy game on Saturday.
 
Rick I respectfully disagree. I'll repost what I left on the original thread on that topic:

The difference for NU last year was they lost games that people had marked down as a win, whereas I'd argue NU's schedule(particularly the next set of games after TU) is brutal for us. NU is 2-5 in the Coen era against VCU, ODU, and Drexel at HOME.

However the guys seem to have last year's collapse on their minds, and they know what is at stake. If we get through this stretch 2-1, I'll be exceptionally happy. That would put us at 9-2 assuming a win @ TU as well. The back end of the schedule after this set are on the whole pretty winnable.
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As for the meme that NU ALWAYS fades late... well that's just foolish talk. I know picking a game to start at is completely and 100% arbitrary however over the last 7 games of the conference season here's how NU has done(I'm not including the bracket buster since it's for conference purposes)

08-09: 2-5
07-08-3-4
06-07-5-2
05-06-5-2

Total: 15-9 overall late in the CAA season.
 
For what it's worth... the remaining overall (which I think is more accurate seeing as we are 4-3 in CAA) SOS for each team from strongest to weakest:

1) ODU
2) Georgia State
3) JMU
4) VCU
5) Towson
6) Delaware
7) William & Mary
8) Northeastern
9) George Mason
10) Drexel
11) UNC-W
12) Hofstra

...and remaining SOS by CAA play (tiebreaker decided by overall SOS) from strongest to weakest:

1t) VCU
1t) Delaware
3) Georgia State
4t) JMU
4t) Towson
6t) ODU
6t) William & Mary
8t) Northeastern
8t) Hofstra
10) George Mason
11) Drexel
12) UNC-Wilmington

Out of conference games weren't considered in the remaining overall SOS. If you compare them both, you will notice has the 9th and 10th weakest remaining SOS respectively. I'd say of the four teams atop the CAA right now at 6-1, Mason has the best chance of finishing out on top. Just like Northeastern, they only have 1 remaining game against VCU and it's at home. Right behind Mason is Northeastern with the 8th weakest remaining SOS in both and again they only play us once more (and beat us the first time) and it's at home. EVERY remaining game for us is important if we don't want to play on Friday, but to me the GMU and NU games are MUST win games if we want a shot for the regular season title. With the way they've been playing W&M will be an important win tomorrow as well, but if we were to lose ONE game (all things aside) I'd pick the ODU road game. I thought all season long that ODU has been overrated AND they have not only have the toughest overall remaining SOS in the CAA, but they also have the toughest remaining CAA SOS of the four teams at 6-1 right now.
 
Not sure how many of you still bother to read that "other" board, but there is a similar discussion going on over there. It takes until page 3 of this thread for anyone to mention the possibility of us sneaking back into the top 4 spots. I know none of us really give a rat's rear end about what they think of us, but someone may want to point Joey in this direction so that the team is aware of what everyone else is thinking about us! ;)


http://boards.caazone.com/showthread.php?t=89189
 
VCU4LIFE said:
Not sure how many of you still bother to read that "other" board, but there is a similar discussion going on over there. It takes until page 3 of this thread for anyone to mention the possibility of us sneaking back into the top 4 spots. I know none of us really give a rat's rear end about what they think of us, but someone may want to point Joey in this direction so that the team is aware of what everyone else is thinking about us! ;)


http://boards.caazone.com/showthread.php?t=89189
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That's awesome. I can't really blame em for discounting us given we started 1-3 in conference. It is funny how quickly we dropped out of the rest of the CAA's consciousness after having one of the strongest OOC performances in the conference (2nd only to W&M IMO). I think it will be tough for us to win the conference, but people probably underestimate us now that we started so poorly. I think we get a top 4 spot. Mason is still notoriously poor on the road...so I expect them to drop at least one game and they play some tough games (ie. ODU in Norfolk). They are young and should be up and down. I think W&M will likely lose to us tomorrow, ODU in Williamsburg will almost be a neutral game for ODU given how many fans come out to Kaplan and the Tribe could very easily lose 2 in a row. Still a ton of basketball to be played.

As long as we have a top 4 seed when the dust settles I think we'll be in good shape. 4 games in 4 days at the Coliseum would not bode well for our CAA championship chances. I don't think a team has ever done that in CAA history.
 
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