VCU's final attempt at securing a double-bye comes tonight and it may come with an extreme degree of difficulty. After falling at Richmond by three, then dropping a home contest against Duquesne by 10, the black and gold travel to Dayton to attempt an upset to secure the A-10's 4-seed for next week's tournament. Like the game against Duquesne, they may have to do it without their best player, Max Shulga, as well.
In this week's media minutes following the loss to the Dukes, Rams Head Coach Ryan Odom hinted that the goal is to have a healthy Shulga for next week's tournament in Brooklyn, NY.
The Rams narrowly defeated Dayton in their first matchup this season, 49-47 at the Siegel Center, limiting likely A-10 Player of the Year, Da'Ron Holmes, to 12 points on 3-8 shooting and limiting the Flyers to just 36% shooting from the field, an astounding feat considering the Flyers rank 8th nationally in effective field goal percentage on the season.
The Flyers may be without a key piece from their team as well. Starting point guard, Javon Bennett (8.9 ppg, 3.5 ast, 1.3 stl), missed the Flyers most recent contest at Saint Louis, a game Dayton won, 100-83. The Flyers play the 21st shallowest bench in college hoops with just six players averaging double-digit minutes on the season. That number dips to five available without Bennett in the lineup. The Flyers offense had no problems without Bennett in that first game, but did so against a Saint Louis team that ranks last in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. VCU on the other hand has played one of the deeper benches in the country on the season (39th nationally in bench minutes), so adjusting to the potential of no Max Shulga in the lineup, or Fats Billups for that matter, could hopefully come a bit easier for the Rams and hopefully more so than it did against Duquesne.
Dayton is the only A-10 team currently projected in this year's NCAA tournament without needing the conference's auto-bid. The Flyers on paper are the league's most balanced team, ranking 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 69th on defense. Holmes is the obvious major threat there, but on the wing sits Koby Brea, a 6'6 senior that averages 10.8 points per contest on the nation's second best true shooting percentage at 71.6%.
The Rams actually have the higher-ranked defense on the year, ranking 53rd nationally in Ryan Odom's first season on Broad St., but haven't found the same success offensively due to a troublesome turnover issue (which has been cleaned up somewhat in conference play) and an inability to score the easy buckets inside the arc. VCU ranks 14th in the A-10 in 2-point percentage at just 46.5%, down from their 50.5% season average.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Da'Ron Holmes - A legit National Player of the Year candidate, Holmes is THE reason the Flyers are having the season they are. It starts and ends with him. VCU was able to limit him somewhat in the past matchup, something the Rams have struggled to do more often than not against productive bigs in A-10 play.
Nate Santos - The Pitt transfer was Dayton's most productive player in the last matchup, scoring 19 points on 7-12 shooting. He can score from anywhere on the floor and makes it that much harder to double-team Holmes.
Enoch Cheeks - The Robert Morris transfer has done a bit of everything over his career and with Bennett potentially (likely?) out, he's a guy Dayton may lean a bit more on to do whatever they need him for. While a lot of the PG duties vacated by Bennett will fall on Koby Elvis, Cheeks will see the ball in his hands more as well. He's scored at least 15 points in his last three contests and is capable of his first 20-point game for the Flyers against VCU tonight.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Interior scoring - VCU did the unthinkable in the last matchup, outshooting Dayton inside the arc, 46.9% to 43.3%. That's the Rams shooting 0.4% better in they than they normally do in A-10 play and Dayton shooting 11.2% worse. That happening again would be incredible, but the odds are against the Rams there.
D the three - The Rams allowed a pretty bad three-point shooting Duquesne team to hit a solid 35.7% in VCU's most recent loss and now head to Dayton to take on a Flyers team that ranks 4th nationally in three-point percentage. When Dayton is connecting from deep in front of their typical 13,000+ fans, things can get out of hand quick.
Supporting cast versus the numbers - Zeb Jackson (39.5% fg%), Sean Bairstow (40.2%) and Jason Nelson (37%) rank second, third and fifth on the team in field goals attempted per game. They also rank eighth, ninth and tenth in field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Why does VCU struggle offensively this year? Because the guys taking the shots aren't making em. Without Max Shulga's team second-best 64.6% in the lineup (behind Tobi Lawal, there's even more pressure on those guys to hit their shots, something that the group has struggled to do with any consistency and a huge reason why VCU is fighting for a double-bye tonight.
Kenpom: 73-64 VCU loss with a 21% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
Watch: ESPN2
Listen: Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM
Live Tweets: @VCURamNation
In this week's media minutes following the loss to the Dukes, Rams Head Coach Ryan Odom hinted that the goal is to have a healthy Shulga for next week's tournament in Brooklyn, NY.
The Rams narrowly defeated Dayton in their first matchup this season, 49-47 at the Siegel Center, limiting likely A-10 Player of the Year, Da'Ron Holmes, to 12 points on 3-8 shooting and limiting the Flyers to just 36% shooting from the field, an astounding feat considering the Flyers rank 8th nationally in effective field goal percentage on the season.
The Flyers may be without a key piece from their team as well. Starting point guard, Javon Bennett (8.9 ppg, 3.5 ast, 1.3 stl), missed the Flyers most recent contest at Saint Louis, a game Dayton won, 100-83. The Flyers play the 21st shallowest bench in college hoops with just six players averaging double-digit minutes on the season. That number dips to five available without Bennett in the lineup. The Flyers offense had no problems without Bennett in that first game, but did so against a Saint Louis team that ranks last in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. VCU on the other hand has played one of the deeper benches in the country on the season (39th nationally in bench minutes), so adjusting to the potential of no Max Shulga in the lineup, or Fats Billups for that matter, could hopefully come a bit easier for the Rams and hopefully more so than it did against Duquesne.
Dayton is the only A-10 team currently projected in this year's NCAA tournament without needing the conference's auto-bid. The Flyers on paper are the league's most balanced team, ranking 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 69th on defense. Holmes is the obvious major threat there, but on the wing sits Koby Brea, a 6'6 senior that averages 10.8 points per contest on the nation's second best true shooting percentage at 71.6%.
The Rams actually have the higher-ranked defense on the year, ranking 53rd nationally in Ryan Odom's first season on Broad St., but haven't found the same success offensively due to a troublesome turnover issue (which has been cleaned up somewhat in conference play) and an inability to score the easy buckets inside the arc. VCU ranks 14th in the A-10 in 2-point percentage at just 46.5%, down from their 50.5% season average.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Da'Ron Holmes - A legit National Player of the Year candidate, Holmes is THE reason the Flyers are having the season they are. It starts and ends with him. VCU was able to limit him somewhat in the past matchup, something the Rams have struggled to do more often than not against productive bigs in A-10 play.
Nate Santos - The Pitt transfer was Dayton's most productive player in the last matchup, scoring 19 points on 7-12 shooting. He can score from anywhere on the floor and makes it that much harder to double-team Holmes.
Enoch Cheeks - The Robert Morris transfer has done a bit of everything over his career and with Bennett potentially (likely?) out, he's a guy Dayton may lean a bit more on to do whatever they need him for. While a lot of the PG duties vacated by Bennett will fall on Koby Elvis, Cheeks will see the ball in his hands more as well. He's scored at least 15 points in his last three contests and is capable of his first 20-point game for the Flyers against VCU tonight.
MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Interior scoring - VCU did the unthinkable in the last matchup, outshooting Dayton inside the arc, 46.9% to 43.3%. That's the Rams shooting 0.4% better in they than they normally do in A-10 play and Dayton shooting 11.2% worse. That happening again would be incredible, but the odds are against the Rams there.
D the three - The Rams allowed a pretty bad three-point shooting Duquesne team to hit a solid 35.7% in VCU's most recent loss and now head to Dayton to take on a Flyers team that ranks 4th nationally in three-point percentage. When Dayton is connecting from deep in front of their typical 13,000+ fans, things can get out of hand quick.
Supporting cast versus the numbers - Zeb Jackson (39.5% fg%), Sean Bairstow (40.2%) and Jason Nelson (37%) rank second, third and fifth on the team in field goals attempted per game. They also rank eighth, ninth and tenth in field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Why does VCU struggle offensively this year? Because the guys taking the shots aren't making em. Without Max Shulga's team second-best 64.6% in the lineup (behind Tobi Lawal, there's even more pressure on those guys to hit their shots, something that the group has struggled to do with any consistency and a huge reason why VCU is fighting for a double-bye tonight.
Kenpom: 73-64 VCU loss with a 21% chance of a Rams victory.
Game tips at 7PM at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
Watch: ESPN2
Listen: Fox Sports 910 AM & 98.5 FM
Live Tweets: @VCURamNation
