- Dec 1, 2016
VCU had an at-large worthy resume (metrics, record, reg season/conf tourney finish, etc) and, I suspect, would’ve replaced Nevada in the field had the Rams lost Sunday.
Had that Sunday loss to Dayton happened:
Big 10 = 8 bids (no 19-14 10th place Rutgers)
Big 12 = 7 bids (no 18-15 7th place Ok St)
MWC = 3 bids (no 21-10 4th place Nevada)
A-10 = 2 bids (yes 26-8 1st place VCU)
1. 218 of 229 BM brackets had Rutgers dancing. The committee didn’t even have Rutgers First Four out.
2. Only 71 of 229 brackets had Nevada (a non-P6) dancing. The committee did. That speaks to “committee composition.”
3. Oklahoma St was 18-15, 7th place (of 10) in the Big 12. Early B-12 tourney ouster.
4. P6 vs non-P6 at-large bids is a thing. It ended up 31 to 5. That’s typical (and political). Had the committee selected Rutgers or Okla St instead of Nevada (or VCU if applicable), it would’ve been 32 to 4 (a record P6-favoring split)
5. # of bids per conference is a thing. The committee generally leans toward “bid balance” if feasible/reasonable resumes exist (hence I opine it would’ve been MWC = 3, A-10 = 2 instead of MWC = 4, A-10 = 1).
5. Politics. Understand the makeup of the committee (people in the room). Bids = $$$, prestige, power, equity, etc.
With the A-10 having a team (VCU) potentially bubblicious at 3pm Selection Sunday, this likely came down to 21-win Nevada (potential 4th MWC bid) and 26-win VCU (potential 2nd A-10 bid) for that last at-large spot (had the Rams lost). I suspect that last at-large spot was going to a non-P6 regardless and both Nevada/VCU were really the only remaining worthy candidates.
History, IMO, likely would’ve favored the 26-8 Rams.
1) A-10 reg season champ by 3 games
2) Advanced to conf tourney final
3) 26 wins, 1st place finish in a Top 12 conf
4) At-large worthy metrics (NET, wins over Pitt, Vandy, Dayton)
5. Rich (and recent) regular tourney history (participant). A known quantity.
Our victory Sunday over Dayton likely got Nevada in (4th MWC bid, 5th non-P6 at-large).
You are entitled to believe otherwise.
And I do believe otherwise. History means nothing to the selection committee, and the committee does not care if any league is a one-bid league. They don’t care if we were the A10 regular season champs. We were relying on Dayton, Vandy, and Pitt as our best wins, and we had two Q4 losses. We were not getting an at-large.
The committee doesn’t give a crap about anything you just typed.